Occasional reflections on Life, the World, and Mathematics

Posts tagged ‘prediction’

One down, 208 to go

We’ve just about finished the first week of the Trump presidency. Just 208 more to go.

(I appreciate that it is anything but determined that Trump will be stepping down on January 20, 2021. I’m just guessing that, when future historians come to write about this period, January 2021 will mark the transition from the Presidency to the Imperial Reign.)

Screens or Weights?

I probably shouldn’t be spending so much of my time thinking about U.S. election polls: I have no special expertise, and everyone else in the country has lost interest by now. But I’ve just gotten some new information about a question that was puzzling me throughout the recent election campaign: What do pollsters mean when they refer to a likely voter screen? (more…)

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